Abstract 1 The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates
in the 2 maritime industries whether one could expect an increase in cargo transportation in
the region. 3 After a dramatic drop in Arctic maritime transport in the 1990s and 2000s, the
number of 4 vessels sailing along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increased from 4 in 2010
to 71 in 2013, 5 before declining to 53 in 2014. Shipping data shows a reduction in average
sailing time from 6 of ca. 20 days in 1990s to 11 days in 2012-2013, attributed to easing sea …

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the
maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region.
Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20
days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the
Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is
substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the …