Political fragmentation and government stability: Evidence from local governments in Spain

F Carozzi, D Cipullo, L Repetto - American Economic Journal: Applied …, 2022 - aeaweb.org
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2022aeaweb.org
This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a
regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in
the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by
5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the
probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such
a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition …
Abstract
This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability. (JEL C78, D72, H70)
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