Real-time estimation of accident likelihood for safety enhancement

JS Oh, C Oh, SG Ritchie, M Chang - Journal of transportation …, 2005 - ascelibrary.org
JS Oh, C Oh, SG Ritchie, M Chang
Journal of transportation engineering, 2005ascelibrary.org
Unlike conventional traffic safety studies that focused on histrionic data analyses, this study
attempts to identify traffic conditions that might lead to a traffic accident from real-time
freeway traffic data. An innovative feature of the study is to apply the concept, real-time and
preaccident, to accident studies by integrating real-time capabilities in advanced traffic
management and information systems (ATMIS). In this study, the traffic conditions leading to
more accidents are defined as real-time accident likelihood, and the accident likelihood is …
Unlike conventional traffic safety studies that focused on histrionic data analyses, this study attempts to identify traffic conditions that might lead to a traffic accident from real-time freeway traffic data. An innovative feature of the study is to apply the concept, real-time and preaccident, to accident studies by integrating real-time capabilities in advanced traffic management and information systems (ATMIS). In this study, the traffic conditions leading to more accidents are defined as real-time accident likelihood, and the accident likelihood is estimated by employing a nonparametric Bayesian model. The main goal of the study is to remove hazardous traffic condition prior to accident occurrence by incorporating the real-time accident likelihood into ATMIS. This study estimates real-time accident likelihood from empirical data on I-880 freeway in California, and shows its applicability as an accident precursor.
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