SEIR model analysis of the Omicron variant spread in Bulgaria–an empirical study
O Kounchev, G Boyadzhiev… - Proceedings of the …, 2023 - proceedings.bas.bg
O Kounchev, G Boyadzhiev, G Simeonov, M Kunchev, Z Kuncheva
Proceedings of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 2023•proceedings.bas.bgWe provide a study of the Covid-19 spread in Bulgaria in the period starting December 15,
2021 until early February, 2022. In particular, we provide predictive scenarios for the peak of
the pandemic. Based on these scenarios, we estimate the risks in terms of fatalities in the
case no restrictive measures are imposed. The main challenge is distinguishing the
influence of the Delta variant which is still dominating in December, 2021, while Omicron
becomes dominant in early January, 2022.
2021 until early February, 2022. In particular, we provide predictive scenarios for the peak of
the pandemic. Based on these scenarios, we estimate the risks in terms of fatalities in the
case no restrictive measures are imposed. The main challenge is distinguishing the
influence of the Delta variant which is still dominating in December, 2021, while Omicron
becomes dominant in early January, 2022.
Abstract
We provide a study of the Covid-19 spread in Bulgaria in the period starting December 15, 2021 until early February, 2022. In particular, we provide predictive scenarios for the peak of the pandemic. Based on these scenarios, we estimate the risks in terms of fatalities in the case no restrictive measures are imposed. The main challenge is distinguishing the influence of the Delta variant which is still dominating in December, 2021, while Omicron becomes dominant in early January, 2022.
proceedings.bas.bg
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