opinion literature, subjective probability (SP) judgments have been analyzed as a function of
objective probability (OP) and generally have been found to be conservative, that is, to
represent underconfidence. In the calibration literature, analyses of OP (operationalized as
relative frequency correct) as a function of SP have led to the opposite conclusion, that
judgment is generally overconfident. The authors reanalyze 3 studies and show that both …