Spatio-temporal modeling of infectious diseases by integrating compartment and point process models

AVR Amaral, JA González, P Moraga - Stochastic Environmental Research …, 2023 - Springer
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2023Springer
Infectious disease modeling plays an important role in understanding disease spreading
dynamics and can be used for prevention and control. The well-known SIR (Susceptible,
Infected, and Recovered) compartment model and spatial and spatio-temporal statistical
models are common choices for studying problems of this kind. This paper proposes a
spatio-temporal modeling framework to characterize infectious disease dynamics by
integrating the SIR compartment and log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) models. The …
Abstract
Infectious disease modeling plays an important role in understanding disease spreading dynamics and can be used for prevention and control. The well-known SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) compartment model and spatial and spatio-temporal statistical models are common choices for studying problems of this kind. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal modeling framework to characterize infectious disease dynamics by integrating the SIR compartment and log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) models. The method’s performance is assessed via simulation using a combination of real and synthetic data for a region in São Paulo, Brazil. We also apply our modeling approach to analyze COVID-19 dynamics in Cali, Colombia. The results show that our modified LGCP model, which takes advantage of information obtained from the previous SIR modeling step, leads to a better forecasting performance than equivalent models that do not do that. Finally, the proposed method also allows the incorporation of age-stratified contact information, which provides valuable decision-making insights.
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