Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the
causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this
strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets
of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through
December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of
prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number …