Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning): A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities

M Juanchich, KH Teigen, A Gourdon - Judgment and Decision …, 2013 - cambridge.org
Judgment and Decision making, 2013cambridge.org
In most previous studies of verbal probabilities, participants are asked to translate
expressions such as possible and not certain into numeric probability values. This
probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which-outcome (WO)
approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability
terms. The WO approach has revealed that, when given bell-shaped distributions of
quantitative outcomes, people tend to associate certainty with minimum (unlikely) outcome …
In most previous studies of verbal probabilities, participants are asked to translate expressions such as possible and not certain into numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which-outcome (WO) approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has revealed that, when given bell-shaped distributions of quantitative outcomes, people tend to associate certainty with minimum (unlikely) outcome magnitudes and possibility with (unlikely) maximal ones. The purpose of the present paper is to test the factors that foster these effects and the conditions in which they apply. Experiment 1 showed that the association of probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will last at least…, it is possible that the battery will last up to…). Further, we tested whether this pattern was dependent on the frequency (e.g., increasing vs. decreasing distribution) or the nature of the outcomes presented (i.e., categorical vs. continuous). Results showed that despite being slightly affected by the shape of the distribution, participants continue to prefer to associate possible with maximum outcomes and certain with minimum outcomes. The final experiment provided a boundary condition to the effect, showing that it applies to verbal but not numerical probabilities.
Cambridge University Press
以上显示的是最相近的搜索结果。 查看全部搜索结果