Track gauge is the most significant tram track geometry parameter. Its degradation, which manifests as gradual increase of gauge deviation from prescribed values during track exploitation, causes poor ride quality, reduces safety and triggers most of the maintenance activities. To optimize tram track maintenance procedures, it is necessary to increase the proportion of preventive maintenance at the expense of corrective maintenance. This requires creation of physical model of track degradation. Conducted survey of conventional track degradation models showed that, in order to quantify the influence of track design, construction and exploitation characteristics on gauge degradation, it is most favourable to adopt the mechanistic‐empirical modelling approach. Zagreb high‐capacity tram network presents an optimal testing ground for exploration of the possibilities for tram track gauge degradation model development. Analysis of modelling results gave new, practical insights about the effects of tram track design and construction elements and exploitation characteristics on gauge degrada‐-tion. These models represent the first step towards predictive maintenance system establishment on Zagreb tram tracks.