Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

M Webster, C Forest, J Reilly, M Babiker, D Kicklighter… - Climatic change, 2003 - Springer
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in
climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth …

Modeling uncertainty in climate change: A multi-model comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both
the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first …

The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty

DP van Vuuren, KI van der Wijst, S Marsman… - Nature Climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we
construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the …

A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

E Monier, X Gao, JR Scott, AP Sokolov, CA Schlosser - Climatic Change, 2015 - Springer
In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate
projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States …

Modeling uncertainty in integrated assessment of climate change: A multimodel comparison

K Gillingham, W Nordhaus, D Anthoff… - Journal of the …, 2018 - journals.uchicago.edu
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating our
understanding of climate change. This study explores uncertainty in baseline trajectories …

[PDF][PDF] Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers

R Lempert, N Nakicenovic, D Sarewitz… - Climatic …, 2004 - cetesb.sp.gov.br
Climate-change policy-making confronts a wide range of significant scientific and
socioeconomic uncertainties. How experts should best characterize such uncertainties for …

Uncertainty quantification in climate modeling and projection

Y Qian, C Jackson, F Giorgi, B Booth… - Bulletin of the …, 2016 - journals.ametsoc.org
The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the
scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical …

Wrestling with uncertainty in climate economic models

WA Brock, LP Hansen - … of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for …, 2018 - papers.ssrn.com
This paper uses insights from decision theory under uncertainty to explore research
challenges in climate economics. We embrace a broad perspective of uncertainty with three …

Approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/economic policy models

A Kann, JP Weyant - Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2000 - Springer
A number of key policy insights have emerged from the application of large-scale
economic/energy models, such as integrated assessment models for climate change. These …

Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment

S Paltsev, E Monier, J Scott, A Sokolov, J Reilly - Climatic Change, 2015 - Springer
We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and
uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas …