Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

AJ Symstad, NA Fisichelli, BW Miller, E Rowland… - Climate Risk …, 2017 - Elsevier
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource
decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and …

[引用][C] Considering multiple futures: Scenario planning to address uncertainty in natural resource conservation

EL Rowland, MS Cross, H Hartmann - 2014 - programs.wcs.org
Conservation professionals face unprecedented challenges arising from changes in land
use, invasive species, biodiversity, climate, and more. These changes interact in complex …

Understanding perceptions of climate change scenario planning in United States public land management agencies

DJ Murphy, L Yung, C Schultz, BA Miller… - Society & Natural …, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
As climate change increasingly challenges the capacity of traditional decision-making
modalities to contend with mounting complexities and uncertainties, natural resource …

[HTML][HTML] Scenario-based decision analysis: integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

BW Miller, MJ Eaton, AJ Symstad, GW Schuurman… - Biological …, 2023 - Elsevier
Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially
because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender …

Uncertainty analysis in multi‐sector systems: Considerations for risk analysis, projection, and planning for complex systems

V Srikrishnan, DC Lafferty, TE Wong… - Earth's …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal
resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are …

Climate change scenario planning: a model for the integration of science and management in environmental decision-making

AN Cobb, JL Thompson - Environmental Modelling & Software, 2012 - Elsevier
This qualitative case study presents an in-depth evaluation of the scenario planning
process, and an exploration of factors influencing its use as an environmental decision …

Managing uncertainty in climate‐driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

JS Littell, D McKenzie, BK Kerns, S Cushman… - …, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest
planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent …

Choosing and using climate‐change scenarios for ecological‐impact assessments and conservation decisions

AK Snover, NJ Mantua, JS Littell… - Conservation …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess
climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and …

[PDF][PDF] Repeatable approaches to work with scientific uncertainty and advance climate change adaptation in US national parks

AN Runyon, AR Carlson, J Gross… - Parks Stewardship …, 2020 - escholarship.org
NPS established its Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) in 2009 to support climate-
informed management for all resources, 1 assets, and values across the US national park …

Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

MDA Rounsevell, A Arneth, C Brown, WWL Cheung… - One Earth, 2021 - cell.com
There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems,
and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making …