Uncertainty analysis in multi‐sector systems: Considerations for risk analysis, projection, and planning for complex systems
Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal
resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are …
resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are …
Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource
decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and …
decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and …
Addressing partial identification in climate modeling and policy analysis
CF Manski, AH Sanstad… - Proceedings of the …, 2021 - National Acad Sciences
Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment
modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to …
modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to …
Managing climate change under uncertainty: Recursive integrated assessment at an inflection point
Uncertainty is critical to questions about climate change policy. Recently developed
recursive integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for studying and …
recursive integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for studying and …
Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in
climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth …
climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth …
Representing socio‐economic uncertainty in human system models
Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are
highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors …
highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors …
Addressing uncertainty in multisector dynamics research
MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways
of human and Earth systems and the emerging interdependent sectors of energy, water …
of human and Earth systems and the emerging interdependent sectors of energy, water …
Approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/economic policy models
A Kann, JP Weyant - Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2000 - Springer
A number of key policy insights have emerged from the application of large-scale
economic/energy models, such as integrated assessment models for climate change. These …
economic/energy models, such as integrated assessment models for climate change. These …
Exploring scenario and model uncertainty in cross-sectoral integrated assessment approaches to climate change impacts
R Dunford, PA Harrison, MDA Rounsevell - Climatic Change, 2015 - Springer
In this paper we present an uncertainty analysis of a cross-sectoral, regional-scale,
Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) for the assessment of climate change impacts …
Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) for the assessment of climate change impacts …
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis
Complex social-ecological systems models typically need to consider deeply uncertain long
run future conditions. The influence of this deep (ie incalculable, uncontrollable) uncertainty …
run future conditions. The influence of this deep (ie incalculable, uncontrollable) uncertainty …