In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions,
for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change …

The use of paleoclimates to constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has seen a
growing interest. In particular, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene warm …

A method is proposed for combining information from several emergent constraints into a
probabilistic estimate for a climate sensitivity proxy Y such as equilibrium climate sensitivity …

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for policy-relevant quantities such as
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years …

Abstract Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change, such as
climate feedback, regional changes, or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity …

Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and
have skill predicting future climate. This study explores 19 previously proposed emergent …

Studies of emergent constraints have frequently proposed that a single metric alone can
constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic emissions. The prevalence …

Climate sensitivity to CO 2 remains the key uncertainty in projections of future climate
change. Transient climate response (TCR) is the metric of temperature sensitivity that is most …

Background The emergent constraint approach has received interest recently as a way of
utilizing multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) ensembles to identify relationships …

Observations are increasingly used to constrain multi-model projections for future climate
assessments. This study assesses the performance of five constraining methods, which …