Developing a theoretically driven causal model of state failure is necessary if scholars are
committed to improving the predictive power and forecasting ability of early warning models …

This article offers the first independent scholarly evaluation of the claims, forecasts, and
causal inferences of the State Failure Task Force and its efforts to forecast when states will …

It is well known that anticipating state failure is as much a matter of being able to generate
an effective response as it is of getting the analysis right. But is the international community …

State failure and state collapse are new labels for a type of severe political crisis exemplified
by events of the early 1990s in Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. In these instances …

Preventing violent conflict requires early warning of likely crises so that preventive actions
can be planned and taken before the onset of mass violence. For most of the post-World War …

The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in
Disaster Governance Page 1 VU Research Portal The legitimacy, accountability, and ownership …

One way to demonstrate progress in a field of scientific inquiry is to show that factors
believed to explain some phenomenon can also be used effectively to predict both its …

POLICYMAKERS, and the research community charged with keeping them abreast of
current events, too often fail to recognize the preconditions and preliminary events that …

Given the challenges posed by failed and failing states, and the likelihood that such failure
will continue well into the new millennium, the need for a strategic approach appears …

State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of
complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like …