A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much
progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors …

Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future
evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be …

Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States
alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social …

When a volcano shows signs of unrest scientists are asked to forecast whether an eruption
will happen, when it will happen and what kind of eruption it will be. They are also expected …

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of
volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more …

Forecasting is a central goal of volcanology. Intensive monitoring of recent eruptions has
generated integrated time-series of data, which have resulted in several successful …

Using long-term data sets, the eruptive size, timing and style can typically be successfully
forecast for dormant volcanoes using current monitoring data and knowledge of precursory …

This chapter provides an introduction to a wide range of methods volcanologists may use to
forecast eruptions and their potential effects. Eruption forecasts are expressed in terms of …

A key question for volcanic hazard assessment is the extent to which information can be
exchanged between volcanoes. This question is particularly pertinent to hazard forecasting …

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus,
communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify …