Consumers routinely rely on forecasters to make predictions about uncertain events (eg,
sporting contests, stock fluctuations). The authors demonstrate that when forecasts are …

Influential forecasts occur when the forecast itself determines whether the forecast is tested.
New product sales forecasts are often influential because a low forecast may cause a firm …

How do we combine others' probability forecasts? Prior research has shown that when
advisors provide numeric probability forecasts, people typically average them (ie, they move …

Problem How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental
research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems …

Despite improvements in statistical forecasting, human judgment remains fundamental to
business forecasting and demand planning. Typically, forecasters do not rely solely on …

Sales forecasting is becoming increasingly complex, due to a range of factors, such as the
shortening of product life cycles, increasingly competitive markets, and aggressive …

People at cocktail parties are always asking me for stock tips, and then they want to know
how my predictions have turned out. Their requests reveal the common but fundamentally …

Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence
heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals …

This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule
of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative …

The expectation formation process has been extensively studied by economists, particularly
for macroeconomic variables. However, no prior research has examined how expectations …