Addressing partial identification in climate modeling and policy analysis
CF Manski, AH Sanstad… - Proceedings of the …, 2021 - National Acad Sciences
Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment
modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to …
modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to …
Uncertainty quantification using multiple models—Prospects and challenges
R Knutti, C Baumberger, G Hirsch Hadorn - Computer simulation validation …, 2019 - Springer
Abstract Model evaluation for long-term climate predictions must be done on quantities other
than the actual prediction, and a comprehensive uncertainty quantification is impossible. An …
than the actual prediction, and a comprehensive uncertainty quantification is impossible. An …
The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision‐making
The origins of uncertainty in climate projections have major consequences for the scientific
and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for …
and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for …
Taking climate model evaluation to the next level
Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a
persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different …
persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different …
Integrated assessment models of global climate change
EA Parson, K Fisher-Vanden - Annual Review of Energy and the …, 1997 - annualreviews.org
▪ Abstract We review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate
change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to …
change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to …
Detecting failure of climate predictions
The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that
are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made …
are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made …
Towards Bayesian hierarchical inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity from a combination of CMIP5 climate models and observational data
Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth's
equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth …
equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth …
Parameterizations: representing key processes in climate models without resolving them
N McFarlane - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
A basic requirement of climate models is to account for the effects of processes that cannot
be represented in spatial or temporal detail because of limitations imposed by resolution or …
be represented in spatial or temporal detail because of limitations imposed by resolution or …
Managing climate change under uncertainty: Recursive integrated assessment at an inflection point
Uncertainty is critical to questions about climate change policy. Recently developed
recursive integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for studying and …
recursive integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for studying and …
Uncertainty analysis in multi‐sector systems: Considerations for risk analysis, projection, and planning for complex systems
Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal
resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are …
resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are …