Under this heading are brief reports of studies providing data that substantiate, disprove, or
refine what we think we know. These notes consist of a summary of the study's procedure …

摘要“过分自信” 是一种偏离校准, 是指人们关于一般知识问题的概率判断通常以某种方式偏离
校准, 这种偏离都偏高. 跨文化系列研究表明: 面对常识和概率判断问题, 集体主义文化成员(如 …

This study investigated the degree of realism in the confidence judgments of 11 to 12‐year‐
olds (41 girls and 40 boys) of their answers to questions relating to a short film clip showing …

Most theories of probability judgment assume that judgments are made by comparing the
strength of a focal hypothesis relative to the strength of alternative hypotheses. In contrast …

The authors report 7 experiments indicating that conditional predictions--the assessed
probability that a certain outcome will occur given a certain condition--tend to be markedly …

We model the aggregation process used by individual decision makers (DMs) who obtain
probabilistic information from multiple, possibly nonindependent, sources. We distinguish …

There are many ways in which confidence can be expressed, both in the real world and in
the research lab. For example, Yaniv and Foster (1995) present the concept of grain size …

This study investigated the effect of two types of feedback (confirmatory and disconfirmatory)
on the accuracy in witnesses' confidence judgements of their event memory. Overall, the …

Recent research in selective processing theory has produced a myriad of important findings
of interest to marketing managers. At a general level, two streams of selective processing …

Abstract Kacelnik, Schuck-Paim and Pompilio (this volume, p. 377) show that rationality
axioms from economics are neither necessary nor sufficient to guarantee that animal …