The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as
evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about …

A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various
'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We …

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and
vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under …

The study of how people use subjective probabilities is a remarkably modern concern, and
was largely motivated by the increasing use of expert judgment during and after World War II …

Most so-called “errors” in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability
theory. Examples of such “errors” include overconfidence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base …

Standard probability theory has been an enormously successful contribution to modern
science. However, from many perspectives it is too narrow as a general theory of …

Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order
to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 …

This paper examined whether belief in the paranormal is linked to a general weakness in
probabilistic reasoning, or whether belief in the paranormal is directly linked to the …

Professional probabilists have long argued over what probability means, with, for example,
Bayesians arguing that probabilities refer to subjective degrees of confidence and …

Human probability judgments are systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian
models of cognition. But perhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but …