In this survey, we argue that the economic analysis of fertility has entered a new era. First-
generation models of fertility choice were designed to account for two empirical regularities …

This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to
explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job …

What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of
the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run …

Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade,
leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to …

A safe asset is a simple debt instrument that is expected to preserve its value during adverse
systemic events. The supply of safe assets, private and public, has historically been …

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2% for
more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline …

This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an
empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents' partial …

This paper offers a unified explanation for the slowdown of productivity growth, the decline in
business dynamism, and the rise of market power. Using a quantitative framework, I show …

Why are interest rates so low in the Unites States? We find that they are low primarily
because the premium for safety and liquidity has increased since the late 1990s, and to a …

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently.
However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as …