B Enke, T Graeber - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2023 - academic.oup.com
This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people's subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of …
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by …
Actual and perceived gender norms are key to understanding gender inequality in society. In this paper, using newly collected nationally representative datasets from 60 countries that …
The stock market is volatile, as is aggregate economic activity, and the two are connected. At least since Burns and Mitchell (1938), we know that measures of investment and production …
P Cantarelli, N Belle, JL Hall - Public Administration Review, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This article presents a research synthesis of 162 studies focusing on information use for decision‐making in public administration, management, and policy. The findings reveal that …
A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers' forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic …
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the …
We incorporate diagnostic expectations into a workhorse neoclassical business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnostic overreaction …
We survey retail investors at an online bank to study how beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns shape investment decisions measured in administrative account …