We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale
randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The …

This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people's
subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of …

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing
important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by …

Actual and perceived gender norms are key to understanding gender inequality in society. In
this paper, using newly collected nationally representative datasets from 60 countries that …

The stock market is volatile, as is aggregate economic activity, and the two are connected. At
least since Burns and Mitchell (1938), we know that measures of investment and production …

This article presents a research synthesis of 162 studies focusing on information use for
decision‐making in public administration, management, and policy. The findings reveal that …

A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers'
forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic …

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical
problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the …

We incorporate diagnostic expectations into a workhorse neoclassical business cycle model
with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnostic overreaction …

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study how beliefs about the autocorrelation of
aggregate stock returns shape investment decisions measured in administrative account …