This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule
of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative …

The successful introduction of new durable products plays an important part in helping
companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be …

This paper seeks to empirically examine diffusion models and Google Trends' ability to
explain and nowcast the new product growth phenomenon. In addition to the selected …

Previous multi-generational product diffusion (MGPD) models were developed based on the
diffusion patterns at that time, but may not be adopted in today's cases. By incorporating the …

This research develops a new product diffusion model for a product category that involves
multiple brands and multiple generations. We examine our proposed model's validity …

Mathematical models are often used to describe the sales and adoption patterns of products
in the years following their launch and one of the most popular of these models is the Bass …

Most prior new product diffusion (NPD) models do not specifically consider the role of the
business model in the process. However, the context of NPD in today's market has been …

Vertriebsprognosen oder „Forecasts “sind das Handwerkszeug jeder Verkaufsorganisation.
Doch lediglich der so genannte „rollierende Forecast “ist verbreitet. Andere Forecast …

This paper proposes a micro‐level diffusion model to analyze individual physicians'
adoption of a newly launched prescription drug. The adoption probability is a function of the …

This study examines changes in the monthly penetration rates of a Health Information
Exchange (HIE) in a large Health Maintenance Organisation (HMO) in Israel after its …