Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model

R Xu, Y Sun, C Chen, P Venkitasubramaniam… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal
prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to …

Flexible and Systematic Uncertainty Estimation with Conformal Prediction via the MAPIE library

T Cordier, V Blot, L Lacombe… - Conformal and …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
Conformal prediction (CP) is an attractive theoretical framework for estimating the
uncertainties of any predictive algorithms as its methodology is general and systematic with …

Inductive Conformal Prediction: A Straightforward Introduction with Examples in Python

M Sousa - arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.11810, 2022 - arxiv.org
Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic
algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee …

Conformal prediction with missing values

M Zaffran, A Dieuleveut, J Josse… - … on Machine Learning, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive
intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates–a setting that …

Cross-conformal predictors

V Vovk - Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, 2015 - Springer
Inductive conformal predictors have been designed to overcome the computational
inefficiency exhibited by conformal predictors for many underlying prediction algorithms …

[PDF][PDF] EXPANDED COVERAGE GUARANTEES FOR CONFORMAL INFERENCE

I Gibbs - 2024 - stacks.stanford.edu
This thesis develops new methods and associated coverage guarantees for conformal
inference. We begin by discussing applications of the conformal framework to the online …

Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples

FF Yilmaz, R Heckel - arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.04166, 2022 - arxiv.org
Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty
estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes …

Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals

L Cabezas, MP Otto, R Izbicki, RB Stern - arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.07357, 2024 - arxiv.org
Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty
associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to …

[HTML][HTML] Conformal and probabilistic prediction with applications

A Gammerman, V Vovk, H Boström, L Carlsson - Machine Learning, 2019 - Springer
This special issue of Machine Learning is devoted to conformal prediction, an emerging
technique in machine learning that focuses on designing prediction algorithms that are …

JAWS-x: Addressing efficiency bottlenecks of conformal prediction under standard and feedback covariate shift

D Prinster, S Saria, A Liu - International Conference on …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
We study the efficient estimation of predictive confidence intervals for black-box predictors
when the common data exchangeability (eg, iid) assumption is violated due to potentially …