Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight

R Kapoor, D Wilde - Strategic Management Journal, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract Research Summary What makes some managers and entrepreneurs better at
forecasting the industry context than others? We argue that, regardless of experience or …

Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases

CLP Pennings, J van Dalen, L Rook - Omega, 2019 - Elsevier
Human judgment, an almost inextricable ingredient in demand forecasting, introduces many
unintentional and intentional biases to the forecasting and operations planning process. In …

What Machine Learning Can Learn from Foresight: A Human-Centered Approach: For machine learning–based forecast efforts to succeed, they must embrace …

C Crews - Research-Technology Management, 2019 - Taylor & Francis
Overview: Machine learning applications in business that return forecasts or predictions of
future market or consumer behavior must pay attention to nontechnical aspects of how those …

[PDF][PDF] Superforecasting: How to upgrade your company's judgment

PJH Schoemaker, PE Tetlock - Harvard Business Review, 2016 - stanford.edu
Back in October 2002, the National Intelligence Council issued its official opinion that Iraq
possessed chemical and biological weapons and was actively producing more weapons of …

Prediction markets for foresight

A Graefe, S Luckner, C Weinhardt - Futures, 2010 - Elsevier
To navigate turbulent business environments, organizations have to develop foresight
capacities that enable them to anticipate probable futures, respond rapidly to emerging …

Strategy making: what have we learned about forecasting the future?

P Raspin, S Terjesen - Business Strategy Series, 2007 - emerald.com
Purpose–Firms face uncertain environments characterized by shifting demographics,
disruptive technologies, new industries and competitors, and other challenges. To survive …

Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research

R Vecchiato, G Favato… - Futures & Foresight …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We explore the relationship between foresight and managerial cognition and the
contribution of foresight to the long‐term performance of organizations facing major sources …

Corporate Foresight Benchmarking Report 2018: How leading firms build a superior position in markets of the future

R Rohrbeck, M Etingue Kum, T Jissink… - Tymen and Gordon …, 2018 - papers.ssrn.com
Future Preparedness is shown to be a factor strongly influencing mid-term future firm
performance, and such preparedness can be achieved via the systematic application of …

[HTML][HTML] Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis

R Rohrbeck, ME Kum - Technological Forecasting and social change, 2018 - Elsevier
Corporate foresight is applied with the expectation that it will help firms to break away from
path dependency, help decision makers to define superior courses of action, and ultimately …

Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts

O Stavrova, AM Evans - Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence
heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals …