Conformal Loss-Controlling Prediction

D Wang, P Wang, Z Ji, X Yang… - IEEE Transactions on …, 2024 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Conformal prediction (CP) is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of
prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work …

Loss-Controlling Calibration for Predictive Models

D Wang, J Shi, P Wang, S Zhuang, H Li - arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.04378, 2023 - arxiv.org
We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling
prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss …

Cross-validation conformal risk control

KM Cohen, S Park, O Simeone, S Shamai - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a
conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal …

Efficient and differentiable conformal prediction with general function classes

Y Bai, S Mei, H Wang, Y Zhou, C Xiong - arXiv preprint arXiv:2202.11091, 2022 - arxiv.org
Quantifying the data uncertainty in learning tasks is often done by learning a prediction
interval or prediction set of the label given the input. Two commonly desired properties for …

Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables local guarantees

R Hore, RF Barber - arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.07850, 2023 - arxiv.org
In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with
finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly …

Generalization and informativeness of conformal prediction

M Zecchin, S Park, O Simeone, F Hellström - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on
their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal …

Conformal Prediction with Learned Features

S Kiyani, G Pappas, H Hassani - arXiv preprint arXiv:2404.17487, 2024 - arxiv.org
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees.
Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full …

Distribution-free finite-sample guarantees and split conformal prediction

R Hulsman - arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.14735, 2022 - arxiv.org
Modern black-box predictive models are often accompanied by weak performance
guarantees that only hold asymptotically in the size of the dataset or require strong …

A conformal predictive system for distribution regression with random features

W Zhang, Z He, D Wang - Soft Computing, 2023 - Springer
Distribution regression is the regression case where the input objects are distributions. Many
machine learning problems can be analyzed in this framework, such as multi-instance …

Algorithmic stability implies training-conditional coverage for distribution-free prediction methods

R Liang, RF Barber - arXiv preprint arXiv:2311.04295, 2023 - arxiv.org
In a supervised learning problem, given a predicted value that is the output of some trained
model, how can we quantify our uncertainty around this prediction? Distribution-free …