Traffic forecasters may find value in expressing the uncertainty of their forecasts as a range
of expected outcomes. Traditional methods for estimating such uncertainty windows rely on …

Researchers have improved travel demand forecasting methods in recent decades but
invested relatively little to understand their accuracy. A major barrier has been the lack of …

This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-
completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in …

This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central
traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic …

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating
on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model …

This paper deals with the accuracy of travel demand forecasts among Norwegian road
projects. We use data collected from tolled roads and toll free roads. The results reveal that …

Recent empirical studies have found widespread inaccuracies in traffic forecasts despite the
fact that travel demand forecasting models have been significantly improved over the past …

The underlying premise of the urban transportation planning process is that we can forecast
the future. The process typically develops 20-year forecasts of traffic volumes on each link of …

Forecasting traffic and toll revenues for new highway projects involves great uncertainty
because of the inherent uncertainty in the models used to make forecasts. As private …