How (in) accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?: The case of transportation

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm… - Journal of the American …, 2005 - Taylor & Francis
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm, SL Buhl - Transport Reviews, 2006 - Taylor & Francis
This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy

P Parthasarathi, D Levinson - Transport Policy, 2010 - Elsevier
This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-
completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in …

Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects

MK Skamris, B Flyvbjerg - Transport policy, 1997 - Elsevier
Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and costs in large
transport infrastructure projects. The few studies made all show a tendency for forecasts of …

Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling

B Flyvbjerg - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005 - Elsevier
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring
inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting:(1) using the forecast made at the time of making …

Urban rail transit projects: forecast versus actual ridership and costs. Final Report

DH Pickrell - 1989 - osti.gov
Substantial errors in forecasting ridership and costs for the ten rail transit projects reviewed
in the report put forth the possibility that more accurate forecasts would have led decision …

Do planners get it right? The accuracy of travel demand forecasting in Norway

M Welde, J Odeck - European Journal of Transport and …, 2011 - journals.open.tudelft.nl
This paper deals with the accuracy of travel demand forecasts among Norwegian road
projects. We use data collected from tolled roads and toll free roads. The results reveal that …

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

MS Nicolaisen, PA Driscoll - Transport Reviews, 2014 - Taylor & Francis
Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-
makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such …

The measurement of urban travel demand

D McFadden - Journal of public economics, 1974 - Elsevier
It is a truism that the transportation system is a critical component of every urban economy,
and that transportation policy decisions can have a profound effect on the development of …

Public planning of mega-projects: overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs

B Flyvbjerg - Decision-making on Mega-projects: Cost-benefit …, 2008 - elgaronline.com
Despite the enormous sums of money being spent on transportation infrastructure,
surprisingly little systematic knowledge exists about the costs, benefits and risks involved …