Corporate default prediction model averaging: A normative linear pooling approach

S Figini, R Savona, M Vezzoli - Intelligent Systems in …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Focusing on credit risk modelling, this paper introduces a novel approach for ensemble
modelling based on a normative linear pooling. Models are first classified as dominant and …

A new model averaging approach in predicting credit risk default

PN Jha, M Cucculelli - Risks, 2021 - mdpi.com
The paper introduces a novel approach to ensemble modeling as a weighted model
average technique. The proposed idea is prudent, simple to understand, and easy to …

Probability of default modeling: A machine learning approach

S Bonini, G Caivano - Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial …, 2018 - Springer
Default prediction through probability of default modeling has attracted lots of research
interests in the past literature and recent studies have shown that Artificial Intelligence (AI) …

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model

H Eom, J Kim, S Choi - Journal of intelligence and information …, 2020 - koreascience.kr
This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to
predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 …

Enhancing accuracy and interpretability of ensemble strategies in credit risk assessment. A correlated-adjusted decision forest proposal

R Florez-Lopez, JM Ramon-Jeronimo - Expert Systems with Applications, 2015 - Elsevier
Credit risk assessment is a critical topic for finance activity and bankruptcy prediction that
has been broadly explored using statistical models and Machine Learning methods …

Statistical merging of rating models

S Figini, P Giudici - Journal of the operational research society, 2011 - Taylor & Francis
In this paper we introduce and discuss statistical models aimed at predicting default
probabilities of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME). Such models are based on two …

Estimating credit risk parameters using ensemble learning methods: an empirical study on loss given default

H Sheng Sun, Z Jin - Journal of Credit Risk, Forthcoming, 2016 - papers.ssrn.com
In credit risk modeling, banks and insurance companies routinely use a single model for
estimating key risk parameters. Combining several models to make a final prediction is not …

Firms default prediction with machine learning

T Aliaj, A Anagnostopoulos, S Piersanti - Mining Data for Financial …, 2020 - Springer
Academics and practitioners have studied over the years models for predicting firms
bankruptcy, using statistical and machine-learning approaches. An earlier sign that a …

Explainable artificial intelligence: interpreting default forecasting models based on machine learning

G Cascarino, M Moscatelli… - Bank of Italy Occasional …, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
Forecasting models based on machine learning (ML) algorithms have been shown to
outperform traditional models in several applications. The lack of an easily interpretable …

Models for predicting default: towards efficient forecasts

F Castagnolo, G Ferro - The Journal of Risk Finance, 2014 - emerald.com
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare the forecast ability of existing
credit risk models, answering three questions: Can these methods adequately predict …