Group-weighted conformal prediction

A Bhattacharyya, RF Barber - arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.17452, 2024 - arxiv.org
Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the
output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP …

Post-selection inference for conformal prediction: Trading off coverage for precision

S Sarkar, AK Kuchibhotla - arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.06158, 2023 - arxiv.org
Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for
black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal …

Adaptive Conformal Regression with Split-Jackknife+ Scores

N Deutschmann, M Rigotti… - Transactions on Machine …, 2024 - openreview.net
We introduce an extension of conformal predictions (CP) based on a combination of split-CP
and the Jackknife+ procedure that enables tuning score functions to calibration data and …

Heteroskedastic conformal regression

N Dewolf, B De Baets, W Waegeman - arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.08313, 2023 - arxiv.org
Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a
distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees …

Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction

S Kiyani, G Pappas, H Hassani - arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.18814, 2024 - arxiv.org
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction
(CP). Achieving conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data …

Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables local guarantees

R Hore, RF Barber - arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.07850, 2023 - arxiv.org
In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with
finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly …

Selective Conformal Inference with FCR Control

Y Bao, Y Huo, H Ren, C Zou - arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.00584, 2023 - arxiv.org
Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider
here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported …

Conditionally valid Probabilistic Conformal Prediction

V Plassier, A Fishkov, M Panov, E Moulines - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
We develop a new method for creating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of
conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $ P_ {Y\mid X} $. Most …

Training-Conditional Coverage Bounds under Covariate Shift

M Pournaderi, Y Xiang - arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.16594, 2024 - arxiv.org
Training-conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction concern the concentration
of the error distribution, conditional on the training data, below some nominal level. The …

Probabilistic conformal prediction using conditional random samples

Z Wang, R Gao, M Yin, M Zhou, DM Blei - arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.06584, 2022 - arxiv.org
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference
algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs …