Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy

P Parthasarathi, D Levinson - Transport Policy, 2010 - Elsevier
This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-
completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in …

The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts

JM Hoque, GD Erhardt, D Schmitt, M Chen… - Transportation, 2022 - Springer
Researchers have improved travel demand forecasting methods in recent decades but
invested relatively little to understand their accuracy. A major barrier has been the lack of …

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm, SL Buhl - Transport Reviews, 2006 - Taylor & Francis
This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

How (in) accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?: The case of transportation

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm… - Journal of the American …, 2005 - Taylor & Francis
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: A literature review of roads and railways projects

CO Cruz, JM Sarmento - Transportation, 2020 - Springer
The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of
infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives for this …

[HTML][HTML] Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy

JM Hoque, GD Erhardt, D Schmitt, M Chen… - … research part A: policy …, 2021 - Elsevier
Traffic forecasters may find value in expressing the uncertainty of their forecasts as a range
of expected outcomes. Traditional methods for estimating such uncertainty windows rely on …

Forecasting inaccuracies: A result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?

P Næss, J Andersen, MS Nicolaisen, A Strand - Journal of Transport and …, 2015 - JSTOR
Based on the results from a questionnaire survey and qualitative interviews among different
actors involved in traffic forecasting, this paper discusses what evidence can be found in …

Do planners get it right? The accuracy of travel demand forecasting in Norway

M Welde, J Odeck - European Journal of Transport and …, 2011 - journals.open.tudelft.nl
This paper deals with the accuracy of travel demand forecasts among Norwegian road
projects. We use data collected from tolled roads and toll free roads. The results reveal that …

[图书][B] Analytical travel forecasting approaches for project-level planning and design

A Horowitz, T Creasey, R Pendyala, M Chen - 2014 - trid.trb.org
This report is an update to NCHRP Report 255: Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area
Project Planning and Design and describes methods, data sources, and procedures for …

Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling

B Flyvbjerg - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005 - Elsevier
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring
inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting:(1) using the forecast made at the time of making …