We investigate the empirical link between external debt composition and domestic credit
cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 countries between 1980 and 2015, we show that two …

When taking on new debt, borrowers commit to a pre-specified path of future debt service.
This implies a predictable lag between credit booms and peaks in debt service which, in a …

Using a unique loan-level dataset from the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System, we
construct new measures of external debt shocks for 120 low-and middle-income countries …

Traditional economic models have had difficulty explaining the non-monotonic real effects of
credit booms and, in particular, why they have predictable negative after-effects for up to a …

It has often been assumed that credit and business cycles are closely related, and credit
market difficulties tend to cause, amplify and prolong cyclical downturns in real activity. We …

The current financial crisis has once again shown that the inherent pro-cyclicality of lending
can trigger financial cycles with a potentially substantial impact on the real economy. Against …

Asset market conditions affect output growth through changes in bank lending. This paper is
the first to analyze how this channel changes over the credit cycle. We use newly collected …

While some credit booms are followed by economic underperformance, many are not. Can
lending standards help separate good credit booms from bad credit booms …

Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial
sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence …

A very fast credit growth that is denominated as a credit boom not only contributes to
financial and economic growth, but also can have negative effects on the current account …