In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk
materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences …

For many decisions, we encounter relevant information over the course of days, months or
years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories–qualitative content …

We present a model of intuitive inference, called “local thinking,” in which an agent
combines data received from the external world with information retrieved from memory to …

People are often called on to make an assessment of the relative likelihood of events (eg,
which of two investments is more likely to outperform the market?) and their complements …

Risky prospects come in different forms. Sometimes options are presented with convenient
descriptions summarizing outcomes and their respective likelihoods. People can thus make …

Building on a textbook description of associative memory, we present a model of choice in
which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and …

Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to
misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a …

The distinction between risk and uncertainty is deeply entrenched in psychologists' and
economists' thinking. Knight (1921), to whom it is frequently attributed, however, went …

In this paper we investigate the claim that decisions from experience (in which the features
of lotteries are learned through a sampling process) differ from decisions from description (in …

Decisions take time, and the time taken to reach a decision is likely to be informative about
the cost of more precise judgments. We formalize this insight using a dynamic model of …