Forecasting Bitcoin volatility: The role of leverage effect and uncertainty

M Yu - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2019 - Elsevier
In this study, we first investigate the impacts of leverage effect and economic policy
uncertainty (EPU) on one-step-ahead Bitcoin volatility using high-frequency data. We find …

Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by measuring the spillover effect among cryptocurrencies

Y Qiu, Y Wang, T Xie - Economics Letters, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper studies whether the volatility spillover effect among cryptocurrencies matters for
forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility. Our results show that Bitcoin volatility models …

Which factors drive Bitcoin volatility: Macroeconomic, technical, or both?

J Wang, F Ma, E Bouri, Y Guo - Journal of Forecasting, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Academic research relies heavily on exogenous drivers to improve the forecasting accuracy
of Bitcoin volatility. The present study provides additional insight into the role of both …

When, where, and how economic policy uncertainty predicts Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based analysis

K Mokni - The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2021 - Elsevier
Most previous studies focusing on the effect of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the
Bitcoin price do not assess for market conditions and assume that this effect is symmetric. To …

Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?

C Liang, Y Zhang, X Li, F Ma - International Journal of Finance …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Being more and more popular in the past 10 years, Bitcoin has drawn extensive attention
from the press, scholars, and practitioners. The aim of this paper is to investigate which …

How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?

JB Nouir, HBH Hamida - Research in International Business and Finance, 2023 - Elsevier
We investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risks (GPR) impact
Bitcoin volatility with respect to factors related to type and nationality of uncertainty …

Bitcoin volatility predictability–The role of jumps and regimes

L Qian, J Wang, F Ma, Z Li - Finance Research Letters, 2022 - Elsevier
This study mainly focuses on the role of jumps in forecasting Bitcoin volatility using linear
and nonlinear mixed data sampling models. The results provide strong evidence that using …

Forecasting realized volatility of bitcoin: The role of the trade war

E Bouri, K Gkillas, R Gupta, C Pierdzioch - Computational Economics, 2021 - Springer
We analyze the role of the US–China trade war in forecasting out-of-sample daily realized
volatility of Bitcoin returns. We study intraday data spanning from 1st July 2017 to 30th June …

Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by exploiting measurement error under model uncertainty

Y Qiu, Z Wang, T Xie, X Zhang - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2021 - Elsevier
Modeling Bitcoin realized volatility by the heterogeneous autoregressive model is subject to
substantial model specification uncertainty in practice. To circumvent the lag specification …

Bitcoin return volatility forecasting: A comparative study between GARCH and RNN

Z Shen, Q Wan, DJ Leatham - Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2021 - mdpi.com
One of the notable features of bitcoin is its extreme volatility. The modeling and forecasting
of bitcoin volatility are crucial for bitcoin investors' decision-making analysis and risk …