Exponential smoothing (ES) forecasting methods are widely used but are often dis‐cussed
without recourse to a formal statistical framework. This paper reviews and compares a …

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be
used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable …

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As
a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for …

Abstract Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop
and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources …

Explaining the Results of the M3 Forecasting Competition Page 1 Explaining the Results of
the M3 Forecasting Competition Michael P. Clements ∗ Economics Department, Warwick …

I would like to congratulate Makridakis and Hibon for another seminal contribution to the
empirical forecasting literature. The M-competitions have been highly influential in guiding …

" But 'glory'doesn't mean" a nice knock-down argument," Alice objected." When I use a
word," Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone," it means just what I choose it to mean …

Do forecasting software programs facilitate good practices in the selection, evaluation, and
presentation of appropriate forecasting methods? Using representative programs from each …

In this study, we estimate a transfer function model to test the hypothesis that the US leading
economic indicators and the related composite index is statistically significant as an input to …

One aspect of evolutionary computing as a method of data mining, is its intrinsic ability to
drive model selection according to a mixed set of criteria. Based on natural selection …