Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

Many psychological tests have arbitrary metrics but are appropriate for testing psychological
theories. Metric arbitrariness is a concern, however, when researchers wish to draw …

People are inaccurate judges of how their abilities compare to others'. J. Kruger and D.
Dunning (1999, 2002) argued that unskilled performers in particular lack metacognitive …

This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately
than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less …

We investigate the robustness of results from confidence interval estimation tasks with
respect to a number of manipulations: frequency assessments, peer frequency assessments …

In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of
confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice …

Metaphors mold science. Research on judgment and decision making (JDM)–for which
psychologists and economists have gained Nobel prizes (Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky …

Wenn Sie ein Buch zum Thema Denken und Entscheiden aufschlagen, können Sie damit
rechnen, dass Ihnen folgender Leitsatz begegnet: Vernünftiges Denken basiert auf den …

Previous research by JM Hinson, TL Jameson, and P. Whitney (2003) demonstrated that a
secondary task in a delayed discounting paradigm increased subjects' preference for the …

Confidence in aggregation of opinions from multiple sources Page 339 14 Confidence in
Aggregation of Opinions from Multiple Sources David V. Budescu To the memory of my friend …