Abstract [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 116 (4) of
Psychological Review (see record 2009-18254-008). On page 458, right column, second …

Page 1 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Il Cigno nero Come l'improbabile governa la nostra vita
ilSaggiatore S Tascabili Page 2 Page 3 Tascabili 77 Saggi Page 4 Page 5 Nassim Nicholas …

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate
inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the …

Systematic overconfidence by individuals regarding their abilities and prospects could have
important economic consequences. But overconfidence has received little direct testing …

Abstract Argumentation is pervasive in everyday life. Understanding what makes a strong
argument is therefore of both theoretical and practical interest. One factor that seems …

This paper presents a new incentive compatible method for measuring confidence in own
knowledge. This method consists of two parts. First, an individual answers several general …

Previous research demonstrates overestimation of rare events in judgment tasks, and
underweighting of rare events in decisions from experience. The current paper presents …

This article explores the configural weighted average (CWA) hypothesis suggesting that
extension biases, like conjunction and disjunction errors, occur because people estimate …

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunctive statement B‐and‐A to be
more probable than a constituent B, in contrast to the law of probability that P (B∧ A) cannot …

Studies have found that people are overconfident in estimation involving difficult tasks but
underconfident in easy tasks. Conversely, they are overconfident in placing themselves in …