This article introduces the emergency purchasing situation (EPS) as a distinct buying
context. EPSs stem from an unexpected event (unanticipated need or timing of a need), as …

Psychological studies are frequently cited in the business and finance literature to bolster
claims that various kinds of economic disasters, from the large proportion of start-ups that …

In life, risk is reward and vice versa. Unfortunately, the big rewards people desire are
relatively unlikely to occur. This relationship between risk and reward or probabilities and …

In this chapter, we provide a historical overview of research on bias in human cognition,
ranging from early work in psychology through the detailed, quantitative examinations of …

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as
evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about …

When aggregating the probability estimates of many individuals to form a consensus
probability estimate of an uncertain future event, it is common to combine them using a …

This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate
probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for …

In an uncertain and ambiguous world, effective decision making requires that subjects form
and maintain a belief about the correctness of their choices, a process called meta …

It is known that the average of many forecasts about a future event tends to outperform the
individual assessments. With the goal of further improving forecast performance, this paper …

People think about their thoughts and decisions a lot, such as when they judge how well
they are performing a task or evaluate the quality of their decision processes and products …