This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule
of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative …

Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an
accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. This has motivated a number of authors to …

This article introduces this JBR Special Issue on simple versus complex methods in
forecasting. Simplicity in forecasting requires that (1) method,(2) representation of …

Multistep-ahead forecasts can either be produced recursively by iterating a one-step-ahead
time series model or directly by estimating a separate model for each forecast horizon. In …

This paper presents a method of optimizing the elements of a hierarchy of fuzzy-rule-based
systems (FRBSs). It is a hybridization of a genetic algorithm (GA) and the cross-entropy (CE) …

In marketing and finance, surprisingly simple models sometimes predict more accurately
than more complex, sophisticated models. Here, we address the question of when and why …

Although intermittent demand items dominate service and repair parts inventories in many
industries, research in forecasting such items has been limited. A critical research question …

Combining time series forecasts from several models is a fruitful alternative to using only a
single individual model. In the literature, it has been widely documented that a combined …

We propose that random variation should be considered one of the most important
explanatory mechanisms in the management sciences. There are good theoretical reasons …

Selecting the appropriate forecasting method for a large number of time series is a major
problem for many organizational forecaster. Researchers propose various selection rules in …