Overconfidence has been studied in 3 distinct ways. Overestimation is thinking that you are
better than you are. Overplacement is the exaggerated belief that you are better than others …

A Bayesian perspective on Ioannidis's (2005) memorable statement that “Most Published
Research Findings Are False” suggests a seemingly inescapable trade-off: It appears as if …

Decisions in statistical data analysis are often justified, criticized or avoided by using
concepts of objectivity and subjectivity. We argue that the words 'objective'and 'subjective'in …

Finance for Normal People teaches behavioral finance to people like you and me-normal
people, neither rational nor irrational. We are consumers, savers, investors, and managers …

I study associative processing in high-level judgment using vector space semantic models. I
find that semantic relatedness, as quantified by these models, is able to provide a good …

This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age.
Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little …

We propose that an important determinant of judged confidence is the evaluation of
evidence that is unknown or missing, and overconfidence is often driven by the neglect of …

People view uncertain events as knowable in principle (epistemic uncertainty), as
fundamentally random (aleatory uncertainty), or as some mixture of the two. We show that …

This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the
context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little …

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P (A∧ B) to be
greater than a constituent probability P (A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This …