[HTML][HTML] Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

P Van den Driessche - Infectious disease modelling, 2017 - Elsevier
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ 0, for infectious diseases,
and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ 0 that are useful in guiding control strategies …

[HTML][HTML] Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

F Brauer - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017 - Elsevier
Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future - ScienceDirect Skip to main contentSkip
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[HTML][HTML] Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts

G Chowell - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017 - Elsevier
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess
hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data …

Heterogeneous population dynamics of active particles: Progression, mutations, and selection dynamics

L Gibelli, A Ełaiw, MA Alghamdi… - Mathematical Models and …, 2017 - World Scientific
This paper proposes a conceptual revisiting of population dynamics to include
heterogeneous behaviors of individuals, mutations, and selection. The first part of the paper …

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

X Du, AA King, RJ Woods, M Pascual - Science translational medicine, 2017 - science.org
Interpandemic or seasonal influenza A, currently subtypes H3N2 and H1N1, exacts an
enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence …

[HTML][HTML] Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward

G Chowell, C Viboud, L Simonsen, S Merler… - BMC medicine, 2017 - Springer
The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola
epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and …

[HTML][HTML] Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

AE Zarebski, P Dawson, JM McCaw, R Moss - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017 - Elsevier
Epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as
Melbourne (Australia) where there is also significant variability in their timing and …

[HTML][HTML] Modelling community-control strategies to protect hospital resources during an influenza pandemic in Ottawa, Canada

P Saunders-Hastings, B Quinn Hayes, R Smith?… - PloS one, 2017 - journals.plos.org
Background A novel influenza virus has emerged to produce a global pandemic four times
in the past one hundred years, resulting in millions of infections, hospitalizations and deaths …

Online social network emergency public event information propagation and nonlinear mathematical modeling

X Liu, C Liu, X Zeng - Complexity, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Emergency public event arises everyday on social network. The information propagation of
emergency public event (favorable and harmful) is researched. The dynamics of a …

Seasonal influenza forecasting in real time using the incidence decay with exponential adjustment model

T Nasserie, AR Tuite, L Whitmore… - Open Forum …, 2017 - academic.oup.com
Background Seasonal influenza epidemics occur frequently. Rapid characterization of
seasonal dynamics and forecasting of epidemic peaks and final sizes could help support …