[HTML][HTML] Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art

S Makridakis, RJ Hyndman, F Petropoulos - International Journal of …, 2020 - Elsevier
This paper provides a non-systematic review of the progress of forecasting in social settings.
It is aimed at someone outside the field of forecasting who wants to understand and …

Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

F Petropoulos, S Makridakis - PloS one, 2020 - journals.plos.org
What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this
question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of …

[HTML][HTML] The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods

S Makridakis, E Spiliotis, V Assimakopoulos - International Journal of …, 2020 - Elsevier
The M4 Competition follows on from the three previous M competitions, the purpose of which
was to learn from empirical evidence both how to improve the forecasting accuracy and how …

Anomaly detection in univariate time-series: A survey on the state-of-the-art

M Braei, S Wagner - arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.00433, 2020 - arxiv.org
Anomaly detection for time-series data has been an important research field for a long time.
Seminal work on anomaly detection methods has been focussing on statistical approaches …

From data to causes I: Building a general cross-lagged panel model (GCLM)

MJ Zyphur, PD Allison, L Tay… - Organizational …, 2020 - journals.sagepub.com
This is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for
causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) …

Forecasting across time series databases using recurrent neural networks on groups of similar series: A clustering approach

K Bandara, C Bergmeir, S Smyl - Expert systems with applications, 2020 - Elsevier
With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large
quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with …

Criteria for classifying forecasting methods

T Januschowski, J Gasthaus, Y Wang, D Salinas… - International Journal of …, 2020 - Elsevier
Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a “machine learning” or “statistical” nature
has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as …

[PDF][PDF] Czarny łabędź

NN Taleb - Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym …, 2020 - prawo.uni.wroc.pl
Od Yogiego Berry do Henriego Poincarégo Rozdział 10: SKANDAL PROGNOZOWANIA O
niesprecyzowanej liczbie kochanków carycy Katarzyny Powrót ślepoty na Czarne Łabędzie …

Demand forecasting in supply chain: The impact of demand volatility in the presence of promotion

M Abolghasemi, E Beh, G Tarr, R Gerlach - Computers & Industrial …, 2020 - Elsevier
The demand for a particular product or service is typically associated with different
uncertainties that can make them volatile and challenging to predict. Demand …

A brief history of forecasting competitions

RJ Hyndman - International Journal of Forecasting, 2020 - Elsevier
Forecasting competitions are now so widespread that it is often forgotten how controversial
they were when first held, and how influential they have been over the years. I briefly review …