We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of US states using newly
constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates …

We review and assess the monetary policy framework currently used by the Federal
Reserve, with special focus on policies that operate through the slope of the term structure …

Rising profitability and market valuations of US businesses, sluggish wage growth and a
declining labor share of income, and reduced unemployment and inflation, have defined the …

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they
always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This …

We investigate the flattening Phillips relation by making two departures from standard
specifications. First, we measure slack using real activity variables that are bandpass filtered …

We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the US start-up rate. It
originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely …

Abstract Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent
increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut∗, in the aftermath of the pandemic and …

We revisit measurement of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current
Population Survey. The incidence of missing answers to the question on change of …

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US
Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a …

Price inflation in the US has been slow to pick up in the last two decades. We show that this
missing inflation can be traced to a growing disconnect between unemployment and core …