Central banks' forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank
communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European …

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the
US Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of …

This paper presents empirical evidence on how judgmental adjustments affect the accuracy
of macroeconomic density forecasts. Judgment is defined as the difference between …

Testing hypotheses regarding how individual survey respondents form their expectations is
susceptible to the multiple testing problem. The probability of falsely rejecting the null …

The rounding of point forecasts of CPI inflation and the unemployment rate by US
Professional Forecasters is modest. There is little evidence that forecasts are rounded to a …

If 'learning by doing'is important for macro-forecasting, newcomers might be different from
regular, established participants. Stayers may also differ from the soon-to-leave. We test …

Both monetary and macroprudential policymakers use conditional density forecasts of GDP
to inform their policy decisions. The former tend to use 'fan charts' that convey uncertainty …

Abstract Following Manzan (2021), this paper examines how professional forecasters revise
their fixed-event uncertainty (variance) forecasts and tests the Bayesian learning prediction …

While several studies have examined the point forecasts by central banks, few have focused
on interval forecasts. This study examines the interval forecasts for inflation and growth …

Issues related to the classification, interpretation, and estimation of inflationary uncertainties
are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of …