In this paper we analyze whether central bank communication can facilitate the
understanding of key economic concepts. Using survey data for consumers and …

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output
forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the …

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters
and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation …

The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic
models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters' inflation and …

Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory
experiments are to be used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is …

How do private agents understand central bank actions and communication? This paper
investigates private agents' interpretation of central bank signals about future policy and the …

This paper studies the forecasting ability of various Phillips curve specifications for 1 year
ahead headline and underlying core inflation measures for three open currently inflation …

This paper studies expectation formation of professional forecasters in the context of the
Phillips curve. We assess whether professionals form their expectations regarding inflation …

Using survey data from six Asian-Pacific countries, we report that professional forecasters
apply the wage Phillips curve, the price Phillips curve, and Okun's law when forecasting …

Faced with an uncertain future, forecasters often rely on textbook relationships to build a
coherent narrative for their macroeconomic forecasts. We focus on two cornerstones of …