Recent developments in causal inference and machine learning

JE Brand, X Zhou, Y Xie - Annual Review of Sociology, 2023 - annualreviews.org
This article reviews recent advances in causal inference relevant to sociology. We focus on
a selective subset of contributions aligning with four broad topics: causal effect identification …

Diagnosing model performance under distribution shift

TT Cai, H Namkoong, S Yadlowsky - arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.02011, 2023 - arxiv.org
Prediction models can perform poorly when deployed to target distributions different from the
training distribution. To understand these operational failure modes, we develop a method …

Improving uplift model evaluation on randomized controlled trial data

B Bokelmann, S Lessmann - European Journal of Operational Research, 2024 - Elsevier
Estimating treatment effects is one of the most challenging and important tasks of data
analysts. Personalized medicine, digital marketing, and many other applications demand an …

Zero-shot causal learning

H Nilforoshan, M Moor, Y Roohani… - Advances in …, 2023 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in
a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing …

The heterogeneous earnings impact of job loss across workers, establishments, and markets

S Athey, LK Simon, ON Skans, J Vikstrom… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the
earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are extremely …

Causal isotonic calibration for heterogeneous treatment effects

L Van Der Laan, E Ulloa-Pérez… - International …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating
predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a …

Individualized treatment effect prediction with machine learning—salient considerations

RJ Desai, RJ Glynn, SD Solomon, B Claggett… - NEJM …, 2024 - evidence.nejm.org
Background Machine learning–based approaches that seek to accomplish individualized
treatment effect prediction have gained traction; however, some salient challenges lack …

Statistical inference for heterogeneous treatment effects discovered by generic machine learning in randomized experiments

K Imai, ML Li - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate
causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may …

[HTML][HTML] Principled estimation and evaluation of treatment effect heterogeneity: A case study application to dabigatran for patients with atrial fibrillation

Y Xu, K Bechler, A Callahan, N Shah - Journal of biomedical informatics, 2023 - Elsevier
Objective: To apply the latest guidance for estimating and evaluating heterogeneous
treatment effects (HTEs) in an end-to-end case study of the Long-term Anticoagulation …

One size does not fit all: Heterogeneous economic impact of integrated pest management practices for mango fruit flies in Kenya—a machine learning approach

K Mulungu, ZA Abro, WB Muriithi… - Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Most previous studies evaluating agricultural technology adoption focus on estimating
homogeneous average treatment effects across technology adopters. Understanding the …