Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means
of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty …

Abstract Reasoning about possibilities is fundamental in daily life. Yet, it has been little
studied in psychology. We present a psychological theory in which it is the foundation of …

We argue that people intuitively distinguish epistemic (knowable) uncertainty from aleatory
(random) uncertainty and show that the relative salience of these dimensions is reflected in …

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate change have
served to alert both the public and policymakers about the scope of the predicted changes …

Abstract Reasoning about epistemic possibilities–those based on knowledge–is
fundamental in daily life. It is formalized in modal logics, of which there are infinitely many …

The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are
probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst …

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats ('unlikely [0–33%]')
have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications …

The paper reviews two strands of research on communication of uncertainty that usually
have been investigated separately:(1) Probabilities attached to specific outcomes, and (2) …

Multiday weather forecasts often include graphical representations of uncertainty. However,
visual representations of probabilistic events are often misinterpreted by the general public …

Research on verbal probabilities has shown that unlikely or improbable events are believed
to correspond to numerical probability values between 10% and 30%. However, building on …