Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference

A Ramdas, P Grünwald, V Vovk, G Shafer - Statistical Science, 2023 - projecteuclid.org
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty—
e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation—that remain valid at all …

Anytime-valid off-policy inference for contextual bandits

I Waudby-Smith, L Wu, A Ramdas… - ACM/JMS Journal of …, 2024 - dl.acm.org
Contextual bandit algorithms are ubiquitous tools for active sequential experimentation in
healthcare and the tech industry. They involve online learning algorithms that adaptively …

Safe testing

P Grünwald, R de Heide… - 2020 Information Theory …, 2020 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We present a new theory of hypothesis testing. The main concept is the s-value, a notion of
evidence which, unlike p-values, allows for effortlessly combining evidence from several …

The Bayesian lens and Bayesian blinkers

M Stephens - … Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2023 - royalsocietypublishing.org
I discuss the benefits of looking through the 'Bayesian lens'(seeking a Bayesian
interpretation of ostensibly non-Bayesian methods), and the dangers of wearing 'Bayesian …

Derandomised knockoffs: leveraging e-values for false discovery rate control

Z Ren, RF Barber - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
Abstract Model-X knockoffs is a flexible wrapper method for high-dimensional regression
algorithms, which provides guaranteed control of the false discovery rate (FDR). Due to the …

Derandomized novelty detection with FDR control via conformal e-values

M Bashari, A Epstein, Y Romano… - Advances in Neural …, 2024 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Conformal inference provides a general distribution-free method to rigorously calibrate the
output of any machine learning algorithm for novelty detection. While this approach has …

E-backtesting

Q Wang, R Wang, J Ziegel - arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.00991, 2022 - arxiv.org
In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as
the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most important …

E-statistics, group invariance and anytime-valid testing

MF Pérez-Ortiz, T Lardy, R de Heide… - The Annals of …, 2024 - projecteuclid.org
E-statistics, group invariance and anytime-valid testing Page 1 The Annals of Statistics 2024,
Vol. 52, No. 4, 1410–1432 https://doi.org/10.1214/24-AOS2394 © Institute of Mathematical …

Valid sequential inference on probability forecast performance

A Henzi, JF Ziegel - Biometrika, 2022 - academic.oup.com
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality
is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts numerical scores …

E-values as unnormalized weights in multiple testing

N Ignatiadis, R Wang, A Ramdas - Biometrika, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We study how to combine p-values and e-values, and design multiple testing procedures
where both p-values and e-values are available for every hypothesis. Our results provide a …