Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism

G Levy, R Razin, A Young - American Economic Review, 2022 - aeaweb.org
We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their
subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a …

Misinterpreting others and the fragility of social learning

M Frick, R Iijima, Y Ishii - Econometrica, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where
even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning …

Limit points of endogenous misspecified learning

D Fudenberg, G Lanzani, P Strack - Econometrica, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We study how an agent learns from endogenous data when their prior belief is misspecified.
We show that only uniform Berk–Nash equilibria can be long‐run outcomes, and that all …

Learning with heterogeneous misspecified models: Characterization and robustness

JA Bohren, DN Hauser - Econometrica, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
This paper develops a general framework to study how misinterpreting information impacts
learning. Our main result is a simple criterion to characterize long‐run beliefs based on the …

[PDF][PDF] The macroeconomics of narratives

JP Flynn, K Sastry - Available at SSRN 4140751, 2022 - aeaweb.org
We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, or beliefs about the economy that
affect decisions and spread contagiously. Empirically, we use natural-languageprocessing …

Belief convergence under misspecified learning: A martingale approach

M Frick, R Iijima, Y Ishii - The Review of Economic Studies, 2023 - academic.oup.com
We present an approach to analyse learning outcomes in a broad class of misspecified
environments, spanning both single-agent and social learning. We introduce a novel …

Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models

I Esponda, D Pouzo, Y Yamamoto - Journal of Economic Theory, 2021 - Elsevier
We consider an agent who represents uncertainty about the environment via a possibly
misspecified model. Each period, the agent takes an action, observes a consequence, and …

User strategization and trustworthy algorithms

SH Cen, A Ilyas, A Madry - arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.17666, 2023 - arxiv.org
Many human-facing algorithms--including those that power recommender systems or hiring
decision tools--are trained on data provided by their users. The developers of these …

Evolutionarily stable (mis) specifications: Theory and applications

K He, J Libgober - arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.15007, 2020 - arxiv.org
Toward explaining the persistence of biased inferences, we propose a framework to
evaluate competing (mis) specifications in strategic settings. Agents with heterogeneous …

Convergence in models of misspecified learning

P Heidhues, B Kőszegi, P Strack - Theoretical Economics, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We establish convergence of beliefs and actions in a class of one‐dimensional learning
settings in which the agent's model is misspecified, she chooses actions endogenously, and …