[HTML][HTML] Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers
Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means
of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty …
of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty …
Guidance on communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments
European Food Safety Authority, A Hart, L Maxim… - EFSA …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This document provides guidance for communicators on how to communicate the various
expressions of uncertainty described in EFSA's document:'Guidance on uncertainty analysis …
expressions of uncertainty described in EFSA's document:'Guidance on uncertainty analysis …
Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: a qualitative systematic review
A Kause, WB de Bruin, S Domingos… - Environmental …, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
We undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to arrive at recommendations
for shaping communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. Climate …
for shaping communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. Climate …
Scenarios in the strategy process: A framework of affordances and constraints
V Tiberius - European Journal of Futures Research, 2019 - Springer
This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and
foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future …
foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future …
When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are
probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst …
probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst …
The effect of numerical and textual information on visual engagement and perceptions of AI-driven persona interfaces
In an experiment, we present 38 marketing and data analysts professionals with two online
AI-driven persona interfaces, one using numbers and the other using text. We employ eye …
AI-driven persona interfaces, one using numbers and the other using text. We employ eye …
Dimensions of uncertainty communication: What is conveyed by verbal terms and numeric ranges
KH Teigen - Current Psychology, 2023 - Springer
The paper reviews two strands of research on communication of uncertainty that usually
have been investigated separately:(1) Probabilities attached to specific outcomes, and (2) …
have been investigated separately:(1) Probabilities attached to specific outcomes, and (2) …
[HTML][HTML] What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low
KH Teigen, M Juanchich, E Løhre - Organizational Behavior and Human …, 2022 - Elsevier
Research on verbal probabilities and standard scales issued by national and international
authorities suggest that only events with probabilities above 60% should be labelled “likely” …
authorities suggest that only events with probabilities above 60% should be labelled “likely” …
Climate scientists' wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of
certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more …
certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more …
Forecasting with judgment
This chapter explores the roles that human judgment plays in forecasting in organisations. It
focuses on the latest research findings to examine why, despite advances in predictive …
focuses on the latest research findings to examine why, despite advances in predictive …