We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual
forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in …

The primary purpose of the paper is to enable deeper insight into the measurement of
economic forecast accuracy. The paper employs the systematic literature review as its …

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of
professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that …

We conduct a systematic comparison of the short-term forecasting abilities of twelve
statistical models and professional analysts in a pseudo-real-time setting, using a large set …

We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36
advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989–2010. We show that the degree …

Increasingly, professional forecasters and academic researchers present model-based and
subjective or judgment-based forecasts in economics which are accompanied by some …

We document the fact that the growth forecasts made by professional forecasters in
advanced economies exhibit systematic errors, and analyze how these errors depend on the …

USDA invests significant public resources into developing its crop projection reports. These
publications inform decisions across the supply chain. Several previous studies find that …

In this paper a hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector regression (GA‐SVR) model in
economic forecasting and macroeconomic variable selection is introduced. The proposed …

This paper examines the extent to which large swings of sovereign yields in euro area
countries during the debt crisis can be attributed to fundamentals, focusing on the inherent …